Human Behavior, The Media & War.
Politics has always been a media circus, but with the advent of Reality TV and the Internet the lines between fact, fiction, reality, fantasy, truth and opinion have become inextricably intertwined. Public opinion was a bit more resilient when it came to the effects of propaganda in the past - those who voted were more likely to be better informed - they needed to make an effort to read about and discuss the candidates in order to come to conclusions about the best one to vote for. Today, the media pre-digests huge amounts of information and shits out sound bites. And Americans, trained as we are by advertising, happily gobble up every last turd.
Politicians have begun to catch on to the power of media tools - demographics and timing, advertising and presentation. Elections are popularity contests based on things that should have nothing to do with good, honest government - Looks, Money, Connections, Power. Its funny - most charismatic leaders who rise to power through their families oil wealth and questionable business relations are found in Arab countries. But I digress….
Consider timing as a tool for manipulation. When observed on television it goes something like this:
Two Hour Movie
8:00 PM - 8:30 PM - Solid, 30 minutes of uninterrupted movie.
8:30 PM - 8:32 PM - Short 2 minute commercial break.
8:32 PM - 8:54 PM - 22 minutes of movie.
8:54 PM - 8:57 PM - Slightly longer 3 minute commercial break.
8:57 PM - 9:15 PM - 18 minutes of movie.
9:15 PM - 9:20 PM - Longer 5 minute commercial break.
9:20 PM - 9:30 PM - 10 minutes of movie.
9:30 PM - 9:36 PM - 6 minute commercial break.
9:36 PM - 9:46 PM - 10 minutes of movie.
9:46 PM - 9:50 PM - 4 minute commercial break.
9:50 PM - 9:54 PM - Conclusion of movie.
9:54 PM - 9:58 PM - 4 minute commercial break.
9:58 PM - 10:00 PM - Movie credits (sometimes in split screen with previews/station ID/sound bites….
What they’ve done is initially hooked you on the program and then gradually and somewhat randomly increased the frequency and duration of the commercial interruptions. This accomplishes a few things. First, it gives you the false impression that all of the breaks will be short and that getting up will cause you to miss portions of the movie. Second, the random nature of the increases strengthens the belief that leaving will cause gaps in your viewing experience and a loss of continuity. The result of this is that you are kept in your seat as a target for products. This is not something most people are aware of on a conscious level so it is deceptive and a bit sleazy but mostly harmless. The biggest issue is that it formats people to accept data in certain ways that are beneficial to the producers - not the consumers. But it doesn’t kill people….
Which brings me to my next point….
Consider timing as a tool for political manipulation. When observed in current United States policy it goes something like this:
Staying In Office For Two Terms
9/12/01 - Set Bin-Laden up as a scapegoat.
10/01 - Convince voters that getting Bin-Laden will end terrorism everywhere.
11/01 - Do Not Find Bin-Laden.
01/02 - Do Not Find Bin-Laden.
03/02 - Do Not Find Bin-Laden.
04/02 - Begin to look foolish.
06/02 - Distract voters and save face by identifying a new target.
07/02 - Use 9/11 as an excuse to get your hands on foreign oil.
08/02 - Try to build anti-Iraq sentiment.
09/02 - Try to build anti-Iraq sentiment.
10/02 - Try to build anti-Iraq sentiment.
12/02 - Threaten War.
01/03 - Threaten War.
02/03 - Threaten War.
08/03 - Commence War.
01/04 - Get re-elected.
Similar to the media example above the current administration is leveraging fear in order to control the outcome of certain events. Popularity put them in office. That popularity is waning. They realize that if they start a war now it could very well be over by the time 2004 elections come around. They also realize that any conflict could end badly and cost them the election. So, they’ve changed tactics. They no longer care about popularity carrying them through - they’re counting on fear. If they keep from starting a war until close to election time they can rely on the voter’s fear of a break in continuity. Nobody wants to change leaders in the middle of a war. The sad thing is that it will probably work. And people will die.